What Is Going On In the Market

Posted on June 30, 2009 @ 12:32 am

A funny thing has happened in the last 6-8 weeks.  There are almost no sellers.  Literally.The market has made a massive directional push up and really just holds up and does not correct now.It seems almost funny now how difficult it is to short anything for more than maybe 20 minutes or more.   Obviously you cannot fight the market - its doing what it wants how it wants.  But it sure makes trading hard - the buy and hold guys have it locked down.

One thing I know is that no matter what these guys do that are chasing and then bidding the market so it does not sell - it will sell eventually.  The only way you actualy make money, whether day trading or longer term investing, is to  lock in profits.  Until then its just a fantasy.At some point they will turn the tide from chasing in, to wanting out to lock in profits (or avoid losses).

A key pattern lately has been to break below support and then out of nowhere a massive burst of buying jams the market back to the highs.This sort of thing happens so often now, its completely expected.  Often this can result in a new daily low (the break) , only to see a new daily high 30 minutes later as the buyers relentlessly chase the market (im sure shorts are in there too, trapped like dogs).

Even when the economy was plowing along at full steam, we would have 10-15% corrections all the time.And this was what happened when everything was good.Because of this I am not sure what is actually going on.  Several theories are in play that I think about:

  1. Shorts are completely or mostly out of the market.  The SEC messing with the short rules before caused a panic, and now there are many proposals again in regard to uptick rule and shorting.  Rather than get caught, they are staying away from day trading and longer term positioning.
  2. The level of manipulation appears high.  There is a group of large banks or funds that are pushing the market higher at the Fed's and Treasuries request to try to turn the economy out of the recession by making it appear as if the stock market has it figured out.  The way the rescues happen like clockwork, the ramps into the close every friday, and other very odd trading behavior gives this some credence imo.  Would be easy for the government to just give these guys money to push the market up.
  3. Traders are mostly gone, and computer algorithm trading takes over.This can happen also - computerized trading has taken over more of the futures market, which in turn drives stocks.  Since there is no real force to fight them and they are all doing the same thing it just keeps going.  This one I like too because the actual variance of price during the rally pushes is actually uncharacteristically low most of the time.  I have seen the dow futures push up 100 pts in 20 minutes with maybe an 8-9 point max retrace the whole time.  Sure this happens - but not this often as it does now.

Whether any of these theories are true or not, I have no idea and may never find out.  All I know is the trading action is very odd and I expect at least half if not more of this gain to be gone when this is done.Note that I am not predicting a top in the market, I am simply stating that what goes up almost always goes down - and the down is usually painfull.The market could hit 9.000 or 10,000 etc.  I really dont think 10k is possible, with GM dust, C is dust and a few others they just dont have the fuel for the DJIA to actually push up that high in the short term.

Maybe everyone just needs to learn to trade again – this is the new market to stay!

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